As of September 9, Surge members had passed 1,690 referrals and marked 471 of them won. That leaves 1,219: some lost, some still being worked, and some sitting in "new" or "contacted" long after anyone last touched them. Sometimes not even the member who received them can say which is which.
No sales manager would accept that pipeline. A referral group is a sales pipeline with breakfast attached, and it needs the same basics: defined stages, honest numbers and a regular time to look at them.
The stages
Surge tracks every referral through the same statuses. I add one stage in front, because most referrals start there.
- The 1:1. Two members learn each other's businesses well enough to recognize a client. In our first year, 70% of won referrals passed between members who had logged a 1:1 together in the previous 90 days.
- Referral given and received (status: new). A specific person with a specific need, logged as hot, warm or cool.
- Contacted. The receiver has actually reached the prospect. A voicemail doesn't count.
- In progress. There's a quote, a proposal or an appointment on the calendar.
- Won or lost. Won means signed or paid. Lost means they said no, hired someone else, or went quiet well past your trade's normal close time.
Mark the losses. A pipeline with no losses in it is one nobody updates.
Six numbers worth tracking
| Number | The question it answers | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 1:1s per month | Am I building the relationships referrals come from? | Leading |
| Referrals given and received | Am I doing my share, and is my pitch landing? | Leading (given), in between (received) |
| Close rate by temperature | Does "hot" mean anything, from me and from my partners? | Lagging |
| Days to close | How fast do I follow up, measured on my trade's clock? | Lagging |
| Revenue per referral partner | Where should my next 1:1s go? | Lagging |
| Participation rate | What share of the chapter logged a 1:1 or referral in the last four weeks? | Leading |
A few notes from what 1,000 one-to-ones taught us:
- Count second meetings separately. Pairs who met once passed an average of 0.8 referrals to each other over six months. Pairs who met twice passed 2.7.
- Spread beats bursts. Members who met at least weekly for stretches of a month or more received 2.1 times as many referrals as members with similar totals logged in bursts.
- Calibrate temperature. Network-wide, hot referrals closed 51% of the time, warm 26%, cool 8%. If your hot ones close at a third, somebody is calling too many of them hot.
- Use your trade's clock. The median referral closed in 19 days, but HVAC, plumbing, pest control and auto repair take about a week, and real estate, custom building and estate planning two to four months.
Revenue per partner takes one habit: enter the amount when you mark a referral won. Only you and a Surge admin see it; the chapter sees only a total that includes it. Skip it and you can't tell which partner deserves your next breakfast.
Leading and lagging
Leading numbers are things you do: 1:1s, referrals given, showing up. Lagging numbers are results: wins, revenue, close rates. Lagging numbers trail by weeks or months depending on your trade, so judge leading numbers monthly and lagging ones by the quarter.
The most expensive mistake I see: a member has a slow revenue month, decides the group isn't working and stops booking 1:1s. Three months later comes a slow quarter, which seems to confirm the decision.
The 15-minute monthly review
Pick a fixed date, like the first business day of the month, and open Surge:
MONTHLY PIPELINE REVIEW Month: ______
STATUSES (5 min)
[ ] Every referral I received shows its real status
[ ] Anything in "new" over 2 days: called today
[ ] Anything well past my close time: marked lost
[ ] Revenue entered on everything won
[ ] Referrals I gave: asked about anything stuck
LEADING (5 min) This month Last month
1:1s (second meetings) ___ (___) ___ (___)
Referrals given ___ ___
Weeks with a 1:1 or referral ___ of 4 ___ of 4
LAGGING (5 min, last 3 months)
Won by temperature: hot __/__ warm __/__ cool __/__
Median days to close: ___
Top partner by revenue: ________ Last 1:1: ______
NEXT MONTH'S 1:1s
[ ] A top partner I haven't met in 60+ days
[ ] Someone I've met only once
[ ] Someone from another chapter
Statuses come first because every other number depends on them. The last line is deliberate: only 9% of our 1:1s were cross-chapter, but those pairs produced 14% of closed business.
One member's quarter
Here's a quarter for a residential painting contractor I'll call Dana. She's invented, so nobody's private revenue ends up on our blog.
| Q2 | April | May | June | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:1s | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| Referrals given | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| Referrals received | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| Won (by month closed) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Revenue recorded | $4,200 | $2,600 | $9,800 | $16,600 |
On June 30 her nine received referrals stood at four won, two lost, two in progress and one new. Her July 1 read:
- The one in "new" is 27 days old. Either she called and never updated it, or she never called. Only one of those is a data problem. It's her first call of the month.
- 1:1s rose in May, and referrals received jumped in June. One quarter proves nothing, but it's what the network data predicts.
- Temperature is sorting correctly. Hot went two for three, warm two for four, cool none for two. A small sample, but in the right order.
- One partner carries the revenue. A realtor sent three of the nine and $11,400 of the $16,600. Dana's last 1:1 with her was in February, more than 90 days ago. She books the second meeting before she closes the app.
What a chapter leader looks at weekly
A chapter leader sees what the room sees: the pulse slide, the chapter page and the public totals. No prospect names, no individual revenue.
- Participation. Who hasn't logged a 1:1 or referral in three weeks? That's a quiet word over coffee, not a call-out.
- New members' first 60 days. All nine people who have left Surge logged fewer than three 1:1s in their first 60 days. A new member with none after three weeks needs introductions this week.
- The pulse slide against two weeks ago. One down week is noise. Three in a row is worth raising.
- The temperature mix. Temperature is public. If most of the chapter's referrals come in hot, the word has stopped meaning anything. Repeat the definitions.
- Stale referrals. Leaders can't see open referrals, so once a month they ask the room: "Who's holding a referral you haven't called yet?"
Habits that make the numbers lie
- Counting names instead of referrals. "My brother-in-law might need a roofer someday" is a name. Logging it pads your given count and drags down the receiver's close rate. If you can't describe the need, don't log it. If you can but the person isn't expecting a call, log it as cool. Anil Venkataraman's piece covers the difference.
- Never updating statuses. If nothing ever leaves "contacted," your close rate and days to close are fiction. Updating one takes a few taps. It costs the giver too: their 50 points arrive only when the receiver marks the referral won.
- Only tracking dollars. Revenue lags, varies wildly by trade, and is optional to record. A custom builder with $0 in a quarter and eight 1:1s may be having a good year. Twelve pest control wins can add up to less than one kitchen remodel. Dollars tell you what happened. 1:1s and referrals given tell you what's about to.
Put 15 minutes on your calendar for October 1. Start with every referral still marked new.
